| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | LONG | The distribution of outcomes for AI is widening (it's either a productivity miracle or an over-investment bubble). The Front End of the US Yield Curve is the best hedge. If AI causes labor displacement (deflation) or if the bubble bursts (recession), the Fed cuts rates aggressively. LONG Front End Treasuries (2-Year). Inflation re-accelerates to 3-4%, forcing the Fed to hold or hike. |